Even as an ordinary citizen, I have the responsibility to choose wisely the next president of this disaster prone country. “My vote counts”, is a cliche, but it keeps on appearing and repeating itself, and its meaning is not limited at voting somebody and making sure that it is being counted properly, but also on how should I go about the selection process. At first glance, tv and print articles would provide a clue on who to vote. But the longer I ponder about it, the more difficult the task seem to be.

My first approach which I advocated earlier, was to treat this presidential election as a search for the most qualified manager. My proposition is for the voter to assume that he/she owns a big company, perhaps as big as the Philippines, and that she/he is looking for a manager to run the affairs of the company. The natural tendency then in selecting who to hire is to look at the qualification, and the integrity of the applicants. Naturally, if you are looking for a manager you will not settle for somebody who do not have the tiniest idea on how to manage, or do not have the honesty and integrity to run the affairs of your company. I tried this approach to some. I asked them this question; If your are looking for a manager, would you choose Noynoy, Villar, Teodoro, or Estrada? The most common choice are Teodoro and Villar. Sometimes though, they have difficulty on whom to choose between the two.

Even I have some difficulty in deciding between the two equally capable protagonist. Villar has a proven track record in the private and public sector. He has the single minded focus of a determined businessman, a trait that would certainly produce result. Teodoro has also proven his skills in the public management with his stint in the Department of National Defence, though his experience may not be as extinsive as that wtih Villar, he already is a proven commodity, and he is more eloquent and articulate.

My approach in breaking the deadlock is to look at their advocacies and platform of government. I like Villar’s approach of creating an entrepreneurial atmosphere. He’s view of competing government istitution, which is akin to the business competition, is also a new and attractive approach. On the other side, I also like  Teodoro’s talk about structural reform. I for one is pushing of federalism so it is understandable that I have a bias for candidates that advocating or leaning towards thesame agenda.

But  I am still in a bind.

My third approach is to look at the needs or major problem of the country. And what are these; First, I believe that we have a structurally defective governmental system., that resulted to its ineffectivity. So much centralization  also contributed greatly to the corrupt practices in almost every aspect of the government. Corruption is so rampant that it now becoming cultural. Second, Mindanao. The trouble in Mindanao is dragging the country. Investment do not come in because of the overly sensationalize conflict. Mindanao also failed to grow as much as it can because of the negligible attention that national government is giving it. Third, is the business climate. A great portion, about 90%, of business enterprises are controlled by about 5% of the population. The disparity is so wide, that the interest of the few would often block to economic development of the poor.

 

In summary, what am looking at, and my selection process would look like this:

1. Start with the salient needs, the problems of the state.

2. What are the platform of government of these candidates?

3. Who has the skills, the integrity,honest, and the capability  to carry out the offered solution?

To be a head of state is a position that not everyone could have the chance to have, not even a chance to dream of. But with it goes the gargantuan task of carrying the dreams of the nation, of making those dreams a reality, a task so many before have failed to accomplished.

Noynoy Aquino, inspite of his lack of managerial skills, inspite of his low intellectual capacity, inspite of his wimp like aura, is being hailed by those who want to be in power, as the Obama of the 2010 RP presidential election. People like Conrad De Quiros, because of his hatred to the present adminstration, specially his hate to GMA, seems to lost the basic objectivity. He sees a messiah in Noynoy because of his integrity, he sees a saviour with Noynoy because of his honesty, he sees bright hope for the Philippines because of Noynoy.

I feel sorry for him. His logic is now very distorted.  This country will never move when progress will be hinged on people like Noynoy who did not even lifted a finger with regards to hacienda Luisita.

Hacienda Luisita is a very big shame to the Corazon Aquino presidency. It is a prime example of the elite just trying to make use of their position to enhanced their control of their loot. Can’t Noynoy see the injusice in their estate. If Cory is indeed for the people, why did she skirted the agrarian law. If Noynoy, indeed, is a true leader, why didn’t he lift a finger to correct the injustice?

Noynoy is not man enough to go against the injustices done by his parents and relatives. Noynoy do not have the courage, to oppose the obvious mistakes done by his mother.

With those apparent flaws in his character, and lack of leadership and managerial skill, there is a very small window of chance that change will happen during his presidency.

The last week I failed to post due to some very important thing that must be done first. I you play chess you will understand this.

I prepared for a club tournament. After eight months of playing again, and after a dismall performance three months ago(winning 29% of my game), I would like to see how I am improving with my chess.

The result is very good. A 72% winning percentage.

During the latest presidential debate initiated by ANZ, one issue presidentiables tried to tackle is the Mindanao Conflict. It is unfortunate that Mindanao is perenially viewed as a war zone. It pains me to hear thesame story line over the years. Mindanao is not only about the muslim struggle for self determination. We the non muslim likewise desire for greater freedom to determine our future.

Equally  disheartening are the views of our presidentiables on how to solve the conflict. Most have given motherhood statements, so I will no longer elaborate on each answer.

I would like to venture though on how I viewed this moro conflict, and possibly offer some idea on how this could be handled. Some observation listed below could be my basis.

1. The Moro struggle, is a struggle of the moro elite to regain control of their lost kingdom.

2. The Muslims (I am using it as generic for all group, Maguindanao, Maranao, Tausog, Iranon, etc. Not the religion which would be referred to as Islam), are not united, but they are symphatytic to the cause.

3. The muslim-struggle  leaders are  highly educated in combat and in propaganda. They know how to exploit the simple minded-manila centric media.

4. The muslims and christians can co-exist.

5. The christians can defend themselves against the armed muslim group, specially if they will be allowed to do so.

6. Firearms are highly valued among the muslims.

7. The muslims should not be insulted, specially their religious beliefs.

8. The ilonggos and antiquenios have the gall the stand against the moro fighters. But not the ilocanos or the cebuanos.

9. The muslims are ferocios when insulted and when in a group, but meek when alone. When you stand squarely against them, they will not bully you.

10. The typical muslim is not thesame person depicted in media. Many are now educated are now in the mainstream. But are still symphatetic with the muslim struggle.

11. The educated muslim, and the muslim in general,  are already averse to war. They want a normal life. Many are now going into business as their way out.

 

Since the time when this conflict errupted in the 70’s,  the approach of the national leadership is one that is similar to the philosopher’s of the ancient time looking for the ultimate answer.  But apparently there is no such animal, then we should be looking for piecemeal solution, for each piecemeal problem.

At the back of my mind, I believe that when local governments are given enough leeway on how to solve this problem, they can do it. As Gilbert Teodoro explicitely explained; the conflict in Lanao is not the same as the conflict in Sarangani, or the conflict in Cotabato, thus we cannot have a one size fit all solution, as echoed by Chiz Escudero. Very clearly, the solution to different problems should be to each its own peculiarity. The solution should be piecemeal, not one all encompasing treaty.

In negotiation, more participants should be from Mindanao. The prevalent approach is that the president appoints someone who normally comes from Luzon to negotiate with the rebels. This is the lament of the local people of Mindanao with  regards to negotiation. Let the mindanaoans negotiate for their own good. Let us no longer have the Esperon brouhaha.

Another simplistic solution would be education. I have seen it, and it is very clear. The educated muslim will not go into war.  Pour enough resources towards the education of the muslim youth. MSU and USM are big enough to cater to the educational needs of the muslim youth.

Governance in the muslim LGU’s should likewise be strengthened. Corruption is a very big problem. Far bigger than in the national government. What they need are not controls but capacity building. The national government an NGO’s should play an active role in this aspect. The local muslim politician needs guidance. Most have a very low education, and low sense of social responsibility. The likes of Adel Tamano, Sam Pangandaman, Baduy… should work towards this end.

 

There are still numerous approaches, but the four points; 1. Delocalize the approach, by giving local LGU’s more power and thus responsibility to solve their conflicts, 2. Let Mindanaoans negotiate with their muslim counterpart, 3. Pour more money on education of muslim youth, 4. Empower the local muslim leaders (also the christian leaders) though capacity building not controls. 

If the next president could work on those four aspects, I can say the situation here in Mindanao will be a lot peaceful, and investment will come in faster than it is coming now.

After the flood now comes the mud. Slowly the floody situation is getting back to normal, and with that the political mudslinging will once again be the norm.

Ondoy did not only damage many home, it also destroyed Noynoy’s campaign momentum. Perhaps it is  a message from heaven.

On the other side, Ondoy did put Gilbert Teodoro on the front pages, on the tv screens almost daily. Surely, it will make a positive impact on his ratings.

“”"”"

Since Noynoy and Gibo will be two main ingredients in the forthcoming election, and If I am Teodoro’s campaign propagandist, I will package him this way.

;Gibo is the more qualified, the more intelligent cousin of Noynoy Aquino.

The Ondoy Effect was a great equalizer. The rich and the poor during that horrible moment was on the same footing, on the roof  or on the road, all drenched, watching in horror and chilling to death.

One graphic note is penned by Leonor Magtolis;

from a txt mssg. “pls pray/help, my mom’s trap,…on a tree. She’s 71 and weak, I don’t know what to do.”

A 71 year old up on a lanka tree! She must have gone through the roof and swung Tarzan- like to the tree! How she did it is beyond my ken, but I sensed the panic and dispair…, I supposed extreme danger gives unusual physical strength even to the weak.”

The good news came later; the 71 year old lady was eventually rescued from the tree.

Honestly, the article inspite of the tragedy made me smile. It contrast to other  articles that irritates, because instead of offering solution, or helping people to understand why these  abnormally strong flood and typhoons are happening, are there to criticize some government officials.

What would these journalist say if as a Mindanaoan, who have endured so much (not only exploding bombs) negative media coverage, I would write merese, now were even. If people in Mindanao have to contend with the 40 year old conflict, you metro manila people now have to contend with the effect of uncontrolled urbanization.

Of course they will say that those statements are uncalled for specially in time of disaster. They will say that criticism can wait for its proper time. Indeed, the Ondoy Effect has a way of seeing, who has the agenda of simply dismembering this government, and those who simply write on the mandate of truthfully reporting the events of the day.

But will The Ondoy Effect tell the people to go easy on his environment. Will it warn the subdivision developers to rethink their projects and reasses its impact on the community. Will it inform the NGO’s that continued (pouring so much resources on such a small area) reforestation of La Mesa water shed is never enough to combat global warming. I doubt it. Greed will still overpower man’s concern for his environment. Greed will only stop when there is no other choice.

More floods with increasing strength will still be coming. All over the world, that’s the trend. And when it hits the highly urbanized places, the effect is magnified a thousand fold. Tipping point is near when we really have to do something to survive natures wrath.

This coming 2010 presidential election, two of my kids will be voting for the first time.  A first time is always a momentuous event, infact it is a life changer event. More than the celebration of manhood or ladyhood, which we normally celebrate through a western copied practice of debut, voting signals their entry into the world of adulthood. They will not just be debutante, but votante. A first civic and legal action where they have the real opportunity to take the responsibility of deciding for their own future.

Naturally, as a father, I would like to give the correct guidance on whom to vote. But in the spirit of democracy, I can only guide them. They have the freedom to choose, however, this freedom is limited and constrained by their lack of proper knowledge on how to choose properly. Freedom could not be properly exercise when the person is not freed from the chain of ignorance.

The chain of ignorance has so many rings that our collective effort must break  to set us free. One of those ring is the falsehood, the halftruths that PR and advertising practineers resort to to sell their candidates.  The complexity of the modern day campaign techniques is beyond the grasp of even the most learned individual. Many will be drowned by the spin thrown left and right.  Campaign spin doctors operate like a large organization ganging up on the hapless little folks, and the we will have little chance but to swallow what is being thrust into our throat.

I cannot imagine the fisherman who have spent most of his life in the sea, who spends most of his days trying to feed his family, sifting through  the  maze that spin doctors have created.  I will not even give a fair chance to my kid, who will be graduating with a communication degree from the University of the Philippines, of identifying the truth from the half-truths. Not even my second kid whose IQ is 133 could protect himself from being influenced by the campaign.

We have a system that is stacked against the selection of the best or the right leaders.  We adapted the popular democracy model, where filipinos irregardless of educational attainment or their lack of it, will choose who is the best candidate. If Philippines is a large corporation, the selection of the CEO will be something like this. The chairman of the board, the division manager, the corporate strategist, the brightest researcher, the janitor, the guard, the factory worker, all have thesame right to vote. One vote each. The voice below will naturally win over. But will they be able to select the best candidate? Of course not.

Another bias of ours  that does not help is our inclination towards the perceived winner. I know Estrada is a proven failure, but he is still so popular that he might still win. I know Teodoro is intellectually and educationally qualified, but he is not so popular that he may never catch up. I know Noynoy is just a shadow of his parents, but the message of him being the messiah is strongly accepted, and he may win. 

Given the many enfluencers, what is the simplier method, the applicable method of choosing the best candidate? 

My simplistic approach would be; If you have a company (a business enterprise), would you choose that person (candidate) to be the manager? Would you hire him/her?

This coming election, 105/2010 will most like be automated.

If I am the political strategist of one presidential candidate, how would I cheat to victory?

Pathetic you may say, but here in the Philippines, because of past experiences, cheating is one sure way to victory. That is real politics. And it is morally ugly, but that’s what it is. And what the heck! When my candidate wins the pot, he/she will become HONORABLE.

Observing demos and watching forums that touches on the forthcoming automation, I can say in vague words that the only aspect of the game that is new here is the counting process.

Assuming my candidate/s have more than enough financial resources, then two obvious path to take would be by outspending the opponents in the PR/Advertising department. The second would be the organizational or machinery aspect.

PR/Ad would be big because it leapfrog the normal route that is only passable through solid machinery. There is no other way to deliver the message, but to let them listen, let them hear or see you. There is no alternative and dominant medium than the television and radio. Internet and mobile phones are strong avenue, that PR/Ad people could also use. Outspending the opponent is never fair, but if my candidate have the wherewithal to do it, so be it.

Machinery. Who ever said that machinery does not deliver vote is ignorant of the political election in this country.  Since my candidate have enourmous funding, I will build a huge machinery base. It will be from national down to the purok level. If I can have 5 leaders per purok and there are 10 puroks per barangay, then I will have a substantial advantage.  This is like Mayweather having weigth advantage over Marquez. Everybody knows how Mayweather dominated Marquez. 90% of my local leaders will vote for my candidate, and I will have parallel organization from national down to purok.

In Mindanao where there are huge illeterate voters, I will assign 200 hundred assistors per precint, so that would be about 20 % of the total vote per precint. I will also pay substantial amount to local datus and leaders, village leaders both christian and lumad. That would translate to another 20% so I already have 40 percent of Mindanao’s rural votes.

There is also the unused ballots. Election will never be 100% voters turnout. Normally it would only be about 70%. I know that there are corrupt teachers acting as BEI. I can manipulate about 5% of those unused votes by shading 10% of those ballots ahead of time. Some of these teacher because of their needs, and vices will do what my people will dictate them to do, specially if they are to be paid handsomely.

I know that it would be now next to impossible to manipulate the election return and the canvass of votes, so I will have to think of other areas to take advantage of. Example of which should be the stronghold of the opponent. If they are strong for example in Central Luzon, then by all means, I have to make election difficult in that area. The strategy would be to make the turnout there as low as possible. If I could bring it down to 60% percent turnout, then that would already be a big blow against them.

In few words, it means I can still do most of the old tricks that have made me a successful cheater in past electoral contest. Most of my dogs, old dogs and new, won so many contest because of those old trick, and certainly, it will still work this 2010 election.

He is not a Marine,

He is not a Navy.

He is my baby.

 

 

 

 

Date: Friday, 28 August, 2009, 10:48 AM
 
   
 Date: Friday, 28 August, 2009, 10:48 AM
 
 

A couple of days ago, an embarrasing scene was played on tv when a
flip general was carried on someone else shoulder so he wouldnt get wet when
he stepped on a banka boat . the american officer on the other hand waded
on the water and stepped on the banka without any help. See the
symbolism on why the philippines have problems ?
BAGONG PEDICURE SIGURO ANG LOKO. 

I think the Filipino General should be fired. How could he win the war
against the Abu Sayaf? Eh, tubig lang takot na siya. Nakakahiya!!
Lalong nakakahiya doon sa Kano na kasunod niya.
he he he he he he he he

Can we tell the truth, straight? The truth and nothing but the truth.

Noynoy is running on the premise of continuing his father and mother’s battles. “Ipagpatuloy ko ang ipanaglaban ng aking ama at ina.” I hate that kind of statement. Here is a man presenting himself be the next president of this damned country, yet he can not get away from the shadows of his parents. Perhaps a little maturity would suffice to make a man of him. But before I tackle his defeciency, let me get back at his parents.

Ninoy’s legacy to the country was his courageous stand against Marcos. But he is not alone in that fight. Diokno, Tanada, Salonga to name some were equally steadfast in their fight against the dictator. But of course his assasination was the tipping point.

Cory. Cory? Although I am a Mindanaoan, and I stayed most of my life here in Mindanao, I was lucky to be in Metro Manila when Edsa People Power happened. I also experienced Edsa. I was also a Namfrel Volunteer when Cory run for president, so somehow I also have a little political experiences to speak of with regards to politics of that era. Cory for me then was the symbol of change that people clamored for so long. I was in my early twenties then, so young and hopeful for a new beggining. I failed to see the hidden manipulation. It was only later when I realized that, just like in a game of chess,  she was made an instrument by some real player who decides the fate of this country. From a mere pawn, she was promoted to become a Queen. The most powerful piece on board.

With the help of his bishop in Cardinal Sin, through some powerful moves and subtle plots, they were able to turn the tide, and they eventually mated the King. But just like the chess board Queen, Cory moves according to the wishes of the real player. She is the most powerful piece, but has no will of her own. With her as the Queen,the rules of the game is remained thesame. The players is still thesame. The change that I hope never came. The kamag anak inc, the elite group, and the Cojuanco clan simply enthroned themselves, controled the economic pie that they thought was theirs to start with. And left the rest of the country in poverty. Cory simply failed.

Now Noynoy, the wimp who do not even have a faint idea of what is happening to his hacienda. What kind of leadership will he bring. He is not a leader, and never will be. To start with, there was really nothing from his parents that needs to be continued.  Ninoy’s incidental death needs no continuation. Cory’s failed presidency should never be repeated.  Noynoy has all the chance to grow to become a good leader, because he is sourrounded by leaders that he could model his leadership style, but at 49 years he simply failed to become one.

Having belabored so much, unless I have some personal agenda, unless I am the real chess player, I can simply say; that if Noynoy is the knight in the shining armor, there is no rule that allows the  promotion of the Knight to become a King. Having those premises, it is easy to say; Noynoy will never be a leader of this country.